North Africa Must Look South for Trade

Audreyβ€―Verdier‑Chouchane
17 Jul, 2025
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𝑰𝒏 𝒂 π’‡π’“π’‚π’„π’•π’–π’“π’Šπ’π’ˆ π’˜π’π’“π’π’… π’†π’„π’π’π’π’Žπ’š, π’“π’†π’ˆπ’Šπ’π’π’‚π’ π’”π’π’π’Šπ’…π’‚π’“π’Šπ’•π’š 𝒉𝒂𝒔 π’•π’‚π’Œπ’†π’ 𝒐𝒏 π’π’†π’˜ π’Šπ’Žπ’‘π’π’“π’•π’‚π’π’„π’†. 𝑻𝒐 𝒄𝒉𝒂𝒓𝒕 𝒂 π’π’†π’˜ 𝒑𝒂𝒕𝒉 π’•π’π’˜π’‚π’“π’… π’Šπ’π’„π’π’–π’”π’Šπ’—π’†, π’“π’†π’”π’Šπ’π’Šπ’†π’π’•, 𝒂𝒏𝒅 π’”π’–π’”π’•π’‚π’Šπ’π’‚π’ƒπ’π’† π’ˆπ’“π’π’˜π’•π’‰, 𝑡𝒐𝒓𝒕𝒉 π‘¨π’‡π’“π’Šπ’„π’‚π’ π’„π’π’–π’π’•π’“π’Šπ’†π’” π’Žπ’–π’”π’• π’‡π’π’“π’ˆπ’† π’”π’•π’“π’π’π’ˆπ’†π’“ π’†π’„π’π’π’π’Žπ’Šπ’„ π’•π’Šπ’†π’” π’˜π’Šπ’•π’‰ 𝒑𝒂𝒓𝒕𝒏𝒆𝒓𝒔 π’Šπ’ 𝑺𝒖𝒃-𝑺𝒂𝒉𝒂𝒓𝒂𝒏 π‘¨π’‡π’“π’Šπ’„π’‚, π’˜π’‰π’Šπ’„π’‰ π’˜π’Šπ’π’ π’“π’†π’’π’–π’Šπ’“π’† π’‡π’–π’π’π’š π’„π’π’Žπ’Žπ’Šπ’•π’•π’Šπ’π’ˆ 𝒕𝒐 𝒕𝒉𝒆 π‘¨π’‡π’“π’Šπ’„π’‚π’ π‘ͺπ’π’π’•π’Šπ’π’†π’π’•π’‚π’ 𝑭𝒓𝒆𝒆 𝑻𝒓𝒂𝒅𝒆 𝑨𝒓𝒆𝒂.
ABIDJAN – Rising tariffs, geopolitical fragmentation, and persistent supply-chain disruptions are roiling international trade. The World Trade Organization projects a 0.2% contraction in global goods trade in 2025, which could deepen to 1.5% if tensions escalate. United Nations Trade and Development warns that policy uncertainty is eroding business confidence and will slow global growth to 2.3% in 2025. Against this backdrop, developing economies are under mounting pressure to diversify partnerships and reduce external dependencies.
The pressure is particularly acute for North Africa. The region – comprising Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Mauritania, and Tunisia – has long been tethered to European economic cycles. In 2023, the European Union accounted for 45.2% of North Africa’s trade, making the region vulnerable to any slowdown in European demand. At the same time, North Africa has played a marginal role in international commerce, accounting for only 3.7% of global trade in 2023.
But this moment of uncertainty also represents a strategic opportunity for North Africa to look southward, toward the fast-growing markets of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), which currently account for just 2.4% of North Africa’s total trade. As I and others argued nearly a decade ago, stronger economic ties within the continent could reshape regional growth trajectories.
That continues to be true today. With SSA’s economic growth estimated at 3.7% in 2024 and projected to rise to 4% in 2025, the rest of the continent offers many opportunities for North African businesses as an emerging market for manufactured exports and as a region to expand value chains. North African products – particularly from its automotive, fisheries, food processing, pharmaceuticals, and textiles sectors – would likely be well received in SSA, owing to their higher quality and competitive prices.
Read the full article on Project Syndicate.

Audreyβ€―Verdier‑Chouchane is the Lead Economist for North Africa and Acting Division Manager in the Country Economics Department at the African Development Bank (AfDB), based in Abidjan.

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